Fail- a nonparametric distribution?

It occurred to me today that the probability of "fail," specifically regarding "people being fail," is related to the social network. Often I see one or two people being fail, or large groups of people being fail en masse, but rarely do I see a small cocoon of people with, say 3/8 fail and 5/8 approve. In fact, often small groups are the most immune to fail, with only the occasional "kind of fail" persona present who acts completely fail at times and at other times is perfectably acceptable. This has been proposed by researchers as the "Scrub Paradox" and will be mentioned only as it pertains to the greater phenomenon of fail.

Observe two cases that occurred at the same gas station in north georgia.

1. A single old woman comes in and stands directly in front of the coffee machine as she (without proper sanitation napkins on her hands) reaches repeatedly into the donut case, removing 24 donuts extremely slowly. When 2 dozener has finally gotten her fix, and I have gotten my coffee, she proceeds to the check out line, where she pays with a check (at a gas station-- didn't even know that was legal!) and then balances her account and reorganizes her purse, all while I am waiting in line. Then she struggles past with her 2 dozen donuts. <--- FAIL

2. As I exit the gas station I observe a group of approximately 20 urban clad (the urban style apparel, I mean, large chains and shirts with strange symbols, loose pants, etc.) males and about 3 women with very little clothing as well all lean on and loiter about my car, obscuring my safe and unhindered passage towards the door. At least 4 of the men make no shame of looking directly at my booty, even though two are with the ladies already. I am not sure where they came from, but they magically appeared at this gas station to be <---FAIL

I suggest then, that somewhere between say "3" and "15" lies a magic range of social cocoon size where failure is more uncommon. However the failure of a single person, or groups of people > 100 (example: some protesters acting stupid, rap stars birthday parties, bars in downtown Athens) is very common. This suggests a distribution that is... I don't know what you call it, but it looks like an upside-down non parametric with a noncentrality of "2."

Can YOU define a function to fit the probability of fail in single people or large groups? :D

On a side note, what does the rapper Drake mean when he says:

"What am I doin’? What am I doin’?

Oh, yeah, that’s right, I’m doin’ me
I’m doin me
I’m livin’ life right now, maybe"

starting off... "what am I doing?" (you're singing), "what am I doing?" (well, actually rapping)

"oh yeah that's right, I'm doin me" (wait a second, you're WHAT?!?)

"I'm doing me" (I thought you said that but really hoped you didn't. How is that physically possible?)

"I'm living life right now" (congratulations! So are ALL OTHER LIVING BEINGS! You are LIVING life? Who would have thought!)

"Maybe" (or maybe you are an immortal, maybe... I hope not)

Tribble Mill Running Tomorrow!

I've got to go pick up some documents from my dad in ATL tomorrow, and so I've decided to "treat myself" pre-defense to a long run at one of my favorite places, Tribble Mill State Park. I've found actually that the best studying I've gotten done for this defense so far has been just thinking over how to argue stuff or discuss stuff while I am running. Well, if that's what it takes, I'll just do that more. Right now I'm musing on "risk" and "hedonic pricing methods." I also need to review my Faustmann!

Rap... making us all feel smarter one line at a time.

So today I was listening to musical radio, and it was urban-i-fied, since the only stations here are country and rap. Anyway, I heard this ridiculous song called "Tick Tock." The song includes lines like "going to brush my teeth with a bottle of Jack" and "we kick dudes to the curb less they look like Mick Jagger"... I do not understand! Brush your teeth with Jack Daniels? How is that even REMOTELY attractive? Oh, CAVITIES! THEY ARE SO HOTT RIGHT NOW! And Mick Jagger-- really? He's like 75 years old and no females have ever considered him to be attractive. He's a great artist, but really-- Just because Jagger rhymes with "swagger" doesn't mean you have to use it! I mean, you could say "going to get rid of all those dudes, wish I had me a dagger" or "I drank a lot of beer, so I think I will stagger" or "Saw a website that I liked, so I think I will tag'er" or "Then I went to Safeway and I hit on the Bagger." I mean, come now...

That is all.

boo... no timing devices!

Got all the way to the EF and realized, I lost my watch and I can't find my cell phone (probably in the lab, which I can't get to until after 12 because of parking). So it looks like instead of a good run this morning I'm going to be looking for a watch. Ah well, you can't win everything, I guess.

By the way, I HATE April Fool's Day. Nobody better try any trickz on me or I will DESTROY them!

Srichacha!!.. and a really long post about College!

So, I bought some srichacha sauce the other day... because damn it's TASTY!! It is in my desk now, ready to be eaten on whatever, but I noticed it was kind of leaky. As I was cleaning it up, I got some on my hands (okay, a good bit, like quarter sized) and I licked it off... and now my mouth is on FIRE and my new Shasta mug tastes like FIRE. But it's all worth it for the 'chacha. Chile chile chile chile rockin' everywhere.

But that's not why I am posting tonight.

I think it's important to explain the "time vs. team" mindset of college running, and it occurred to me that many people who don't run NCAA may not have had the opportunity to make a few distinctions that inevitably lead to this mindset. I think, as I reflect, that "time" is important for the individual, but "team" is important for the college racing. I also believe that if the goal is centered on the college (which generally it is, since the college is paying you to be there, and they are paying VERY WELL...), the team aspect will win. I believe also that you are very much mentally shaped and trained-- like a greyhound, I think-- to run a certain way and to have a certain mindset. I wish that it were different. I think this is why runners love Prefontaine. He was not altered by this mindset. Sure, there were a million K's who were faster than Pre. But what made Pre special is that he always said running was a gift not to be squandered for any team. But enough of that... let's talk about the NCAA. I am hoping this will be cathartic, and that maybe I can express what I need to say about it clearly and openly, and maybe that will take away some of the thoughts of it.

So here's some reasons why track runners really concern themselves more with "team" than time:

1. You can only run so fast on your own

a. Physically-- usually track is run in the spring, specifically during march and april. It is very windy outside, and on the straights of the track, you'll catch a lot of wind. So if you are an 80 second a lap 10k runner, you might run the curves at 20-20 but only be able to hold 24-24 on the straights (for the whole 10k). If you have a teammate running with you, you'll trade laps so that one person catches the wind for one lap (but pushes, say 21-21) and the other person catches it for the other lap (it's like drafting with bicycles). 10k's spread out really fast, so there's not really a "pack" to draft off of, and most runners are aware of this strategy. It's a well known fact that if a runner from another team starts drafting on you, you'll slow down to the point she has to pass, or you'll move obsequiously to the third or fourth lane, making the distance further.

b. Emotionally-- it's very hard to pace yourself and keep up your spirit while you are running on your own. You would think "I WANT TO PR!" would be great motivation, but to be honest, most people are more concerned with winning than with PR's. In fact, if you get in a slow race, you won't just ball out and win the thing by 1.5 minutes. You'll hang tight and win by 5-10 seconds. There are other races, with stiffer competition, that are worth a balls to the wall effort. In those races, you'll have the benefit of having people to run with you, which makes balls-to-the-wall slightly less painful.

c. Adrenaline-wise-- you really can only go balls-to-the-wall about 2x per season. I wish it weren't like that, and that you could get psyched to dominate in all races, but the truth is that it's just not possible, when you are running 100 miles a week and you are super dull all the time (but in good enough shape to compete at that level) to go all out in every race. So you save it for the big races, when winning means more money and prestige, or when the competition is stiff.

d. The way the individual thing works in pro running is that there are 2 standards. One is called Provo and one is called Auto. Auto has been set by the NCAA and it's a certain percent slower than the world record. Ex. in the 5k, I think women's auto is 15:45. Provo is set by "how fast is everyone else going that year?" There's an upper limit on it, like 16:40, but it's very do able for many people. The fastest 10 people in Provo who are not in auto (unless there are more than 10 in auto) get to go to the national/international meet. So the first goal is "make the auto"-- you don't have to be the fastest auto, you just need to make it. You are guarenteed a spot if you make it. But the next goal is "keep the provo slow in the early season." The idea is that you might make it with a 16:37. Other girls will also make it around that time, let's say a bunch of 16:37, 16:38, 16:39, and maybe only 2 faster girls. So then the last race of the season, right, if 10 people have made auto, and you know you can go faster, you go ahead and just bust a frickin' 16:15. You get your spot to go to the national race, and someone with a slow time gets bumped. The last thing you want is for the Provo to get fast early on, because that means you're going to have to keep on running really extremely fast times all season, and you might be wiped by the race. AKA, it's the fastest 10 runners above Auto over the course of the whole season... if you're running 16:10 in September, there is no way in hell you'll be running 16:10 in December... unless you are truely capable of running 15:45, and in that case, you should be Auto, not provo.

2. There are two different kinds of runners that can run a 5:20 mile

I'm using 5:20 here because it's a very standard mile split for a female college runner. It's 80 second quarters, and it was my 10k pace, so I'm familiar with it. Here's an example. I am "10 k runner type a." I can run 80 second quarters all day long, but anything under 76 will destroy me so badly I can't put in another quarter even at 80. I'll need at least 2 laps of 82-84 to recover and get the acid out.

Then, there are girls who can run only 82 second quarters (2 seconds is a lot of difference here), over a 10k that's 51.3 seconds! but they can put in a 60 second quarter at any time. Call these type B runners.

Before you race, you know EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THAT RACE AND WHICH TYPE THEY ARE. I mean, you have done your research. You have sat with coach and he has told you every school color and mascot and what every girl looks like. You need to know who to go with and who to not go with. Ex. I might know that, say, someone wearing a columbia uniform and someone wearing a kentucky uniform are type a runners. I will go with those girls, even if they go out slowly. Whereas LJ might know that someone wearing a SC uniform is a type B runner, and she'll go with them even if they go out fast. If I went with the type b group, I might risk a random 65 second quarter getting thrown in there. I could probably hang for about 150 before I would be totally shot, and unable to finish and place well for the team. So even if that group is running closer to my capacity than my group, I go with the group that runs the same "way" I do in order to keep from getting "dropped" <-- official running term. There are meetings that runners have where we talk about strategy, just like football players. People wonder when I say "we had 7 hours of practicing a day"-- well, I mean 7 hours of total association with the team; strategic meetings were a big part of this. I can remember so many evenings with the whole group sitting on coach's bed in a hotel room listening to infinite droning about strategy. It was so important, but at a national meet you can imagine; you're not going to remember who every single person of the 500 people there are!

c. At the end of the day, it all comes down to funding. College coaches are really not cool. When the team loses races, the team loses money. When a team score is reported it says SCHOOL 1 3 6 8 45, or whatever-- this means that your runners came in places 1, 3, 6, 8, and 45. The score is made by adding the differences from the total number of runners in the race. So runner 1 gets 99 points, runner 2 gets 97, etc., if there were 100 runners in the race. In a 10k, there's usually between 30 and 50, and that's a big race. In XC, you are looking at between 300 and 500 runners. So it doesn't matter whether or not I get 1st or 5th, as long as the value of 1 or 5 is higher than other teams values of 1 and 5... no one, except "me" cares. Normally teams enter between 7 and 10 girls in a cross race and 3-5 in a track race. They only score your top 5 runners, so girls 7-10 are not valid. They're simply there for "place shifting."

Let's say your team has girls in places 1, 3, 7, 25, 49, 51, and 70

Team 2 has girls in places 2, 4, 5, 22, and 52, 53, and 54. Your sixth runner hasn't given you any "points" but she has kept their fifth runner from being in place 51. This is the difference that your team needs to win. If you didn't enter her, they would be tied with you. It then goes to the 6th and 7th runners, and they would clearly win. The two most important dynamics in a race are the 1-2 split and the 4-5 split. A good team will have a very tight 1-2 split (also called the punch) and a very tight 4-5 split (that's just called a split). So, if you are running in the first position and your second girl gets tired, you are obligated to slow down and help her get through it. The 1-2 positions get the most points, so keeping the morale of 1-2 intact is huge. Ex. if 1 thinks she can win the race and 2 is dying and would probably drop in the kick to position 10 or 12 without person 1, person 1 will slow down to pace with person 2 even if it means loosing the race. The difference between placing 3, 4 and 1, 10 is enough to change the whole race dynamic. This is also crucial in the 4-5 position because so many girls are in that part of the pack. A 2 second difference between girls 4-5 may be 20 to 30 places of difference in the rankings.

4. You don't just run one event at a track event-- well. Some people do. let's say "I don't just ever run one event at a track race."

I am a multi-event runner-- usually I ran the 5 and 10 ks, and sometimes also a leg in the DMR (the mile, obviously, as I am not that fast!, if no one else would run it). That's three events in 2-3 days, and, if there are finals, that's 6 events. You realistically cannot race all six events all out. You will be full of lactic by the end of your best one, and the rest will be crap. There are other runners who are not multi-event runners. They are running one race. So let's say you are "as fast" as a girl running one race. You don't plan to focus on that race. It makes sense to simply go out with that girl and let her do the work (it's her only event) by setting the pace. If you're a slow runner, like me, that means you aren't going to win in the last lap. If you really wanted to "win it," you'd take a fast start and work the whole race. But it's not worth doing that. Let's say she gets 1 by putting in a hard kick at the end, and you get 2. But now she's done racing, and tired, and you are still fresh. Then you go out and get 1 in your next event. So you've brought in (usually in finals there are only 10 racers) 8 + 10 points for your team (first place gets 10 instead of 9, not sure why). She's also brought in 10. That's 28 for the two of you. What if you raced it? In the first race, you still bring in 18 points (but now you are position 1) but in your next race, you are toast, and only bring in 3 points. That's only 21 points for your team. That's a first-to-third conference rank difference, easy (most of the time when we won we beat AK by 0.5 points-- there are partial points in the field events).

As a side note, we learned that superloading pottasium is a great way to rid lactic when it's a pinch. I remember laying on a highjump mat eating literally 3 or 4 bananas and scarfing gatorade right after a race so that in 11 hours or whatever I would be really fresh for the next one. It was a terrible sugar rush, but it really worked, for some reason. This is probably where my love for the honey banana comes from-- I don't even like the taste of it, but it's a good memory.

5. Team dynamic is the ultimate goal. People (especially girls) are snitchy. Which rhymes with another word, which they also are. Teams "establish" roles just like civilizations do. Some people are leaders-- they govern the team, set the rules and the workout paces. Some people are explorers-- they chart the courses of the long runs, test out the trails far away. Some people are educators-- they lead the freshman runs. Other people are communicators-- they train with the track girls. I wasn't in a leadership role-- I was your typical "have you run ____ trail this season? Is it muddy? Can we do our long run there? Can you take us for 18 miles?" Because I didn't train track workouts with the team, and never ran any sprints, my responsibility was what we call LSD (long slow distance). It was never my place to lead, or to win... It seems strange, I know, to think that I could be a happy runner not winning... but I'll give three examples:

a. one time I ran a cross race and I placed #1 for our team (maybe like 16 overall, nationally). I remember that as I was running I saw LJ keel over to the side as I passed by her. She was 50 meters from the end. She didn't even finish the race. We're trained (or abused) to be so emotional about the running, to pour our souls into it. Being passed, when she was a #1 runner, gave her asthma problems for the whole season. Sure, she'd never say it.... but until she won again, I got snippy looks from the whole team.

b. another time, I was running the same race (another year, same course), and I was running in the #2 position. I finished in about the same place (I think LJ finished about 5th). I literally passed out on the line of the course. I came to laying on a bench, and a girl who I had raced in high school was kneeling by my feet, removing my spikes (I was bleeding all over them-- you get cut up in the start of a race because people wear spiked shoes and purposefully kick one another in the shins). I got second for the team in that race, but the event meant so much to me that I wrote a piece about it and presented it to the athletic department. It was really a beautiful act of humility on her part. That race, despite a worse team place (and worse time) was significantly more of a "win."

c. and finally, the race I won that "meant something." the athletic department told me one year that I was "injured." they took me to a hospital where a doctor I didn't like claimed I had a 7 inc fracture down the front of my shin. I was so angry at him. 2 weeks later, it stopped hurting, so I started running on my own, but I had to hide it from everyone-- the team, the other girls, etc. They would not "let" me run. I went to a doctor friend of mine in Atlanta who told me that I had chronic swelling in my shins, and that this shows up on x-rays looking like stress fractures. He got me appointments with the therapist for the GA Thrashers who taught me how to run on my midfoot to prevent some of the swelling in my lower legs-- she diagnosed my hypotonia and helped me learn how to make a more sound mind-body connection. One day, the coaches caught me running. they threatened (as usual) to remove my scholarship. I said I didn't really care (I was kind of an ass then). I told them I didn't want to talk to them, and I went to Calloway Gardens for the weekend. This was in the winter, and there was a half-marathon going on. I jumped in the 1/2 marathon. It was cold and icy the whole time. I ran as fast as I possibly could, and ended up putting in a 1:17, which is convertible to olympic trials B-standards pace. I told the coaches, thinking "okay, they will be happy for me." They were furious-- how dare I race anything not associated with the school (actually, I think it is against regulations unless you race under a pseudonym, which is why Tweedle Dee still gets mail at my parents place). The winter I trained with my buddy in Syracuse was to help her go to the Olympics in the marathon, but secretly I was thinking of quitting... I wanted to go, too. I ended up staying, I know-- my greyhound mind was well trained, I guess-- team first, me second; team first, me second.

I know that doesn't make me sound hardcore in any sort of way, or like a hero or anything. It makes me sound like a girl who let herself be brainwashed and lost her spirit to the lure of having money. And that's what happened, so I can't fake it.

But here's a lesson to be learned from it: I remember before I started all that crap running along Soap Creek trails in the rain, feeling light and agile, running for 2 or 3 hours and feeling great the whole time. Running itself in those days was absolute joy. The training was interesting in college, I loved seeing new cities and getting free shoes and all, but I would trade it all back now to be able to go out for 2-3 hours on a run and to feel awesome and light every day again. Lesson learned-- hope that was a good sharing!

An interesting run

Today I didn't feel like running, so of course, I went running.

I drove to the forest and I started running the main trail. Being that it is called "Six Mile Road" I assume it is probably six miles long. Just a guess, though.

So as I ran along, I really felt like junk and I kept having to re-encourage myself not to just give up and call it a day. Then I saw this little trail off to the right. I thought it might be the trail up to the xeric hill (tallest point on the north forest) which we hiked once this summer. It was really steep then, so I thought, well, I'll at least run up that thing and get something out of this. However, it was not... it was a trail to the tornado alley!

When the tornado came through last year it literally cut an "alley" in the woods-- there are HUNDREDS of downed trees (all facing the same direction) in a corridor where it came through. It was absolutely awesome looking. What made it better is that the whole time I was looking at the damage, I was thinking: I WAS HERE WHEN THIS HAPPENED AND I WASN'T EVEN AFRAID. I mean, this was major damage. It was probably about a 2 mile loop through the tornado alley, and then another 3 or so miles back to the road, so all in all, I got in 8-9 miles, and I was happy about it.

It's pretty strange to think about the fact that while all those trees were crashing down I was in those woods. I think I will run there tomorrow again, but try for 10-12 miles!

A month, in countdown form

As T.S. Eliot once said, "April is the cruellest month..." I shall now prove this statement with a very high tech analysis.

Days until department wide seminar - 1

Days until my license plates come in - 3

Days until my license plates are due - 4 (cutting it close!)

Days until defense -5

Days until stats 12 is due - 7

Days until I am 25 - 11

Days until stats final exam - 29

Days until I leave SC - 30

Good news! Clemson came in 5th place at the national timbersports competition this year! Amongst other things, we won a new cross cut saw (custom made in Redding, CA) worth nearly $1500.00! Also our women's cross cut team came in 2nd-- a girl who was in my IPM course last year competed-- she's one of my favorite people in the department, really works hard and is legit, so I was glad a lot of points attributed to her!

Other commentary: S's comment on the defense was "go home and sleep; I'll tell you not to worry about it this weekend too much, but I know you won't sleep, and that's good for you. You shouldn't sleep the night before your defense." So I think that's good? I guess I'll find out. One of my buddies passed his defense today, and I think a lot of folks from wildlife are coming to my seminar tomorrow-- that's good because they aren't very into "finance" so if they question me it should be pretty easy stuff to answer. I feel like my stuff stands okay on the forestry and econ sides, but I deliberately avoided language like "basis" because I'm not very clear about how the taxation works on urban properties. City tree ordinances are a huge bear.

Things I have learned today...

1. I have been "saving" drafts of my papers on the PC by pressing the wrong button. S. discovered random word of "sand" in my papers-- apparently on PC is is CTRL + S, not Command + S.... oops. FAIL.

2. Even a crappy bed right next to the highway is 1000 x better than sleeping on the floor of my office. I have internet... and a BED... I can even watch NCIS while I work!

3. Did you know that last year there were 9 fires in Northern California and 6 828 fires in the Southeast? The acre difference? 4 acres in Northern California and 104 414 acres in the southeast. Wow. I mean, of course, a lot of that was because we do a lot of prescibed burning here, but I never realized the discrepancy.

4. I think I have confirmed that I am able to eat soy sauce with no consequence! I have been reading much more about the iGa-1 test, too, and it doesn't turn out that it is a very diagnostic type of test... "not much power" as dr. R would say. I have discovered that as long as I let no taste that is sweet into my mouth (except, for some reason, immediately after a run or when i first wake up), my stomach issues are almost non existent. But sweet taste, for some reason, screws everything up.... this is very exciting.

5. No motorcycle classes required for motorcycle liscenses in OR! Excitement.

Well, back to studying for the big D and watching the NCIS marathon in the background on the television in here (makes staying alone a little less scary to have it on, actually! <-- insert wussy side of K here).

Part 2. Things that make the world explode. EXPANDED VERSION!

Well, first for the good... OBSERVE. The two best infection fighting foods are probably 2 of my all time favorite foods: UNSWEET CHOCOLATE AND PRUNES.

In fact, this whole list sounds great. I'd eat them together!

It's time for round 2, things that make the world explode.

1. Children in bookstores-- how did you know I would start with this one? Children, unless they are cool (see also, nerdy) should be banned from bookstores. Or limited to the children's section at least. There is nothing worse than having a sniffling little kid standing next to you are you are trying to READ (since that is what you DO at a bookstore) sticking his fist up his nose and speaking in what sounds like a mixture of Klingon and Swahili. I would say "kids should be seen, not heard," but the fact of the matter is: kids should neither be seen nor heard.

2. Ford 350-- what is that truck doing in the parking lot of anywhere? That thing has like 25 wheels on it, and the tail end is about 20 feet long. When you park your 350 next to me, how am I supposed to back out of a parking space? I can't see past the tail end of that thing. And honestly, why do you need a car that big-- if you need a utility car, use it for utility-- not for going to the drugstore! What's that thing get, .005 mpg?

3. Automated flush toilets-- now, I know, it's nasty to push the handle down. But you know what is worse? When you can't get that thing to go off, and you want the toilet to flush, but it won't. Or... if someone before you had that problem. Imagine this: you have just consumed a gallon of water and you eagerly pull into a rest stop only to find that in the ONE bathroom, someone has had this same problem, but didn't just have to #1.

4. Fungi-- We have a love hate relationship, but clearly fungi wanted it to be something more, which is why they decided to spend all day and night with me in my house. Fungi, I'm taken.

5. High schoolers in bookstores-- highschoolers may also need to be banned from bookstores, or at least, silenced. I learned all about how some girl sitting near me was going to start making $10.00 an hour at her job as a pharmaceutical assistant, plus she liked the first dress she tried on for prom, and it would fit her even if she got fat because it was a little big, and how her friend went to Fordham college to spread some of her south onto the north... okay, this should tell you exactly why high schoolers should be banned from bookstores. Actually, they should just be banned from cellular service. That'll fix em.

6. Overzealous /incompetent/illogical sales people: on this, I will give a few examples-- besides the all time fail of the girl scouts who tried to get me WHILE I WAS RUNNING--

a. Me: "I want a medium BLACK coffee."

Salesperson: "Would you like a flavor in that for only 0.49 cents more?"

Me: "No, just a BLACK coffee. That's it."

Salesperson: "Would you like a blueberry muffin to go with that? How about some chocolate chip cookies?"

Me: "Nope. BLACK coffee."

Salesperson: "Okay, would like to sign up for a Borders Rewards Card and save 10% on your purchase today?"

Seriously... this salesperson needs to know how to read people. When someone comes in asking for BLACK coffee, specificially, they don't want flavors. And most black coffee drinkers aren't into muffins. If they want one, they will ask. Finally, why would want to spend $25.00 signing up for your card so that I could save 0.15 cents on my purchase and have another card to deal with?

b. Me: "Hey, do you carry any kind of power-point clicker that I can use with both a Mac and Windows."

Salesperson: "Well, do you have an iPhone?"

Me: "Nope, I have a regular phone."

Salesperson: "Well, you should get an iPhone. It will work as a presentation clicker by bluetooth communicating with Powerpoint."

Really? Do people fall for that one? I am not in the market for a $350.00 dollar phone with a $30.00 a month plan! I am looking for a clicker for maximum of $70.00-- if it has a lazer pointer and is wireless and communicates with Mac Keynote AND Powerpoint (turns out Best Buy sold one that does all of this for only $39.99, which is the best deal I could get before the presentation).

c. (as I am buying throat medicine)

Salesperson: "Would you like to try a bag of the new doritos or some body wash with this?"

Oh! Doritos! That's exactly what I wanted for my sore throat! Good call, sales person. I love choking down some jagged corn chips when my throat already feels raw. Adds to the fun.

7. The age-checker at Walmart-- now, I know Walmart is lame, but when you need a flashlight at 4:00 am, you don't have much choice. So I go to check out this flashlight from the uscan (in fact, it has the "cars" movie logo on it, because that was the cheapest) and it starts all flashing at me saying "you must be over the age of 14 to purchase this product." I look at the cashier, helpless, and she comes over and checks my ID! For a FLASHLIGHT with the picture of a kids movie on it?!?!?!?! I don't even know what I would do with a flashlight that is dangerous. I mean, I think flashlights keep you SAFE right? So you don't trip over stuff in the dark and all. Apparently, I am under the age of 14 and flashlights are diabolical.

8. The Twilight book/movie series: Okay, so the plot is this. A vampire falls in love with a girl and wants to suck her blood. The girl wants the vampire to suck her blood so she can be immortal. The tension is that the vampire won't suck the blood. WHY NOT JUST DO IT?!?! Nothing is holding either character back, except the author's need to write 4 books on this premise. I have no idea how it ends, but I did look it up online and apparently the girl gets knocked up. I wonder if it's a vampire fetus. That would at least make for a particularly graphic horror movie. I think there are werewolves too. Maybe they should put James Bond in the movie.

9. The Water Snobs-- I am at the gas station, buying some water when I see a girl next to me. She's talking with her friend in front of the water case. She says "ewww, I hate crystal springs water, it's not healthy. Why don't they have Evian or something, it's much healthier water! I'll have to get a Coke or something." Now... I don't know much about water distillation, but I do know this: water is ALWAYS healthier than Coke, unless maybe you are going into hypoglycemic shock and you desperately need sugar right away. There may be some stuff added in the distillation process, but I honestly can't tell a taste difference between one water brand and another. Smart Water does get rid of headaches, but it still tastes like other water. Water is water folks.

10. The beef with beef-- I am not really sure why, but people have some huge hatred for beef in general. I have news for beef haters out there-- it's not the beef that's bad for you, it's the fact that you are eating too much bad beef. Eating 4-8 oz of lean ground beef alone, or 1-3 ounces of lean beef on a sandwich or potato or as schnitzel is perfectly fine. Beef is high in iron and is one of the only natural sources of manganese, which is an essential mineral. It is super obnoxious to see folks with a large beer belly who eat tons of BBQ a day call me out on eating lean, natural pastrami. Guess what! When I was in the best shape of my life I ate pastrami/corned beef/roast/schnitzel on a daily basis. I have run a 20:33 6k on a beef au jus (beef and juice) sandwich from "the brown barrel" (the only restaurant I know in Waterloo). Don't dis the beef!

11. Women's soaps/ shampoos-- apparently men want to smell clean and women want to smell like a produce section. Am I the only one who has noticed this? I don't want my hair to smell like a blueberry garden, watermelon sunset, or coconut spring. I want it to smell like a shower. And if I have to buy Axe to do this, I will!

Note to self:

The gold ATM card takes money from the high-performance account, the blue card takes money from the other account!! (damn you transaction fees!!)

Note to others: an important thing to remember about high performance accounts is that they get you with transaction fees when you actually USE the money in those accounts.

Note to self, 2: I've got to be more careful with my spending. I don' t think those motorcycle lessons are going to happen for a while, unfortunately. I need to save up for the move, or I'm going to run out of money somewhere in the middle of Nebraska or something!

Argh. Much stress today.

Remember this song...

As I am sitting here grading papers, I began to think that I should give some advice to my students about... HOW TO WRITE. For example, if the lab sheet says, "conclusion" you should write a conclusion, etc.

For some reason, the term advice hit me like an anvil and I remembered this song from, I don't know, middle school, which is roughly the time I stopped listening to new music. Remember this song?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTJ7AzBIJoI

I have to admit, it's corny... but if I heard that as a graduation speech in HS, I would be impressed.

(as it was, our valedictorian told the class to ____ off in Gaelic.) The humor value was high, the inspiration value was low.

I found it!

I have a free house to sleep in, and I am allergic to it.

Last night, when I got home, I walked into the house and started sneezing violently. I realized I couldn't breathe at all in the house. So I decided to do what I do best... get out my sleeping bag and curl up (in the driveway) in the backseat of my car. I cracked a window and breathed in cool, perfect, 45 degree air. It stayed about 45 all night-- slightly rainy.

It was the best sleep I've had in South Carolina in years. I woke up feeling refreshed and ready to go at 5 am. In fact, I went to Walmart and bought a flashlight and some coffee, and then did a 1:09 run. I passed a few people while running, even though I felt like I was going super slow, which was a good indicator for me.

I have a feeling I will not be sleeping in that house much more.

In other good news, I have most of what I own that is "large" (blankets, camping gear) in my trunk, packed, and I still have the whole back seat and about 1/2 the trunk left. I think if I give away a few of the blankets, my hangers, my can opener, and the laundry bins, I should be able to get all my belongings, including the stuff on and in my desk, in the car with room to spare.

I may sleep at the beach this weekend. I can go to the WF down there and work on WiFi during the day, and wake up to sunrises over the Atlantic. This is a tenuous idea... but it just might work!

Stack of Work

Whew.

Today the work piled on!!

Papers to grade, thesis to revise, articles to write, stat to learn.... it's going to be a long week(end). Hopefully I can get some of this stuff printed off so I can work on it outside.

Our lab has been interesting this month. A few weeks ago we took the vans to get them fixed (the brakes were out) and today I took the "old" van to the field. It is a sucky van because there are no power brakes, and everyone in the van complains like little girls that the stops are too fast. Well... you try stopping a 15 passenger van without power brakes on the spot!! I know, I shouldn't wait so long to stop... but really, SC drivers are kind of ridiculous, and they'll slow down for all sorts of stuff (hooting at girls, for example), which means-- lots of fast stops. Of course, my van actually worked, which is more than I can say for T's van, which randomly started beeping and blinking and saying "service now!" The problem is, this van is going to conclave (in Monticello, AR) at 3 am tomorrow... or it should be. I just hope they don't break down in Mississippi or something!

I also had the fun of spending my afternoon checking the equipment into the equipment room. Somehow, we managed to manifest equipment during this semester. Our check out sheet indicated that we started with a certain amount of borers, and when I'd check the stuff in we'd have like 5 more. There were discrepancies across the board, all positive. It was strange and I wasn't sure what to do about it-- I mean, we weren't missing anything, but how did we come back with more equipment than we left with in January? The guy who runs the equipment is (rightfully) very anal about it, as the equipment is expensive, and he's got to keep it on a tight watch. I totally empathize with this, but I was terrified of the off results. Oh well. I turned them in and I guess we'll see what happens. At least I don't have to clean out the sap from the borers!!

Tick season started today. I found a little guy chilling on my thigh this evening, having a nice drink. I instantly crushed the fool. I hate ticks. I certainly won't miss them in Oregon. I have bad memories of sitting in R's car this summer half-naked assessing one another for ticks. I mean, it's about as not-fun as it can get-- you are terrified that your crew will find a tick on you, but more terrified that they WON'T find a tick on you! ... occupational hazard, I suppose. Dr. S says its already crawling with ticks... and chiggers... on the coast. Guess I won't be going THERE any time soon!

Immaturity for the day

So, I'm doing some cost analysis for this article I am working on and I happened to be reading about one of my favorite pests. Which made me decide to share the LULZ.

I mean, I know it's immature, but whoever named that bug must have been joking around. That name has way too much innuendo to be serious!

Shasta

^^^ FTW

Hmmm...

I can't decide how I feel about this offhand.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100311/tbs-obama-space-7318940.html

On one side, I am appalled that the nation is not renewing its unified interest in space missions. I feel a little confused that we seem more than anxious to develop our scientific interests about space, but we don't want to send people there? To me this is like an analogy of remotely learning all you could ever want to know about, say, a potentially wild and exotic (and dangerous) place like Antarctica, but never having the means to actually visit it? It seems a bit half-arsed, or something.

On the other side, as an economist, I admit that venture capitalism could have the power to drive a potentially stagnating market back into action. And that if entrepreneurs are willing to take the risk to engage in space travel methods (and they are) then this could potentially lead to contract work and eventually government purchasing in a "space sector." This option would open up the window to more people, I suppose, although, it can be argued, that window was already open in the first place, huh? I suppose if this money for scientific funding does go into competitions or private investments... or universities?... it might be okay. But who's to say where it's going, or better yet, where it's coming from.

All in all, I would say that we are probably not ready for this decision at this point. Or maybe I am just a sucker for some ideal. Symbolically, I summarize this idea as removing the American flag from the moon and replacing it with the Walmart smiley face.

I have set a time and date!

I have just reserved the conference room for my defense (which is being called an "oral exam" by one professor here-- a scary term, I must admit!) Monday, April 5, at 3 pm. Looks like I will be doing much review soon (stat exam = # 1 priority right now)

Fact

The more continuous hours are spent studying, the more necessary frequent, short, and humorously ironic breaks (including wonderfully cathartic breaks for blogging and reading webcomics) are taken. Hence, www.phdcomics.com (see above) has been combined into an effective image.

So the good news...

As if I can't wait to get to OSU already, I received today an email from my future advisor telling me that I would be receiving an addendum to my fellowship awarded from the college. I told my awesome boyfriend (and then my boss), followed by my parents. Admittedly the folks' reaction was much more subdued... I think maybe they are wondering how any human can survive (fiscally) as a graduate student. So much for my business-saavy childhood. To this I say: I am just maximizing the marginal acceptable technical substitution. I take gas-station coffee to gourmet, long hikes in the forest to nights on the town, and scrubby old track pants to dress up clothes any day. And the funny thing is this: if my thesis is to be believed, and if intangible assets actually can be valued, than the emotional recompense I get from the happiness of a frill-less lifestyle actually makes it more valuable than an ornate one!

Ad astra per aspera, I suppose, but the sightseeing is terrific!

The whole plot's connected to the... sub-plot

Maybe it's just me... but trying to grasp these experimental designs without some formal framework is killing me. It's just page after page of random designs and treatment designs, and I have this innate feeling that there's some kind of framework going on here, but it's not even strong enough in my head right now that I know what kind of question to ask...

It reminds me of looking at random bones vs. looking at a skeleton. You know, you could look at a tibia and a radius and they'd look pretty similar, if they were separate. But when you put them together you realize that actually one is a leg and the other an arm!

This is how I feel about experimental designs.

On a side note, today we went to fix the university vans at the CU Automotive shop. I talked my way out of driving the one without working brakes. Briefly, when that opportunity was *presented* I thought to myself "the tides have turned, and I am now a sacrificial zealot." Nonetheless, good people in authority here let me drive the safe van with brakes. I did not mention I am running a massive fever and have taken much cold medication... thankfully, it was a short drive. :)

Hailstorm

Really glad I'm working from home today!

Know what's fun?

...contour integrals are fun!

Actually, that's a lie.

Bleh.

I wonder if U.S. Airways will hook me up with free flights...

...on this.

Honda FTW!

A little friend?

Useful as I am, I have now uploaded a picture of one of my favorite FF characters, Vivi the Black Mage (yes, I FF Wiki'ed the name) from 9. As I have just learned, FF9 is the only one of the FF's to have black mage as a race as opposed to a job.

SAS vs. R... round two: FACTORIAL DESIGN WITH MULTIPLE TREATMENTS

That's right, folks, the great statistical champions are battling it out again in "SAS vs. R: Round 2!" (or, for extra intensity, "round ii"). Today I would like to discuss... FACTORIAL DESIGN WITH MULTIPLE TREATMENTS and SAS's great item for this, PROC MIXED. What is PROC MIXED? PROC MIXED is a SAS command that allows us to do, essentially, a ton of partial regressions within a multilinear regression in order to test statistics about the mean and the variance. What does R have to offer for this same process? I am not sure...

But let me tell you a bit about the SAS. Suppose, for example, we wanted to look at individual means and variances for four treatments blocked on one factor in a RCBD. SAS would say:

PROC MIXED;

CLASS TREATMENT;

MODEL RESPONSE VAR= TREATMENT / DDFM=SATTERTH OUTP=SUMMARY;

LSMEANS TREATMENT / CL;

PROC UNIVARIATE NORMAL PLOT DATA = SUMMARY;

VAR RESID;

PROC GLM DATA=SUMMARY;

CLASS TREATMENT;

MODEL RESID = TREATMENT;

MEANS TREATMENT / HOVTEST= LEVENE(TYPE=ABS);

RUN;

Notice that there is no mention of said means, variances, or amounts of treatment factors in the above SAS. That is because of the "magic" of PROC MIXED. PROC MIXED is able to use the class statements to create the treatment variables. BEST OF ALL... if you have interaction, PROC MIX can be instructed to create variables for the interaction, and test their significance...this is AWESOME, because even with 3 treatments and 3 blocks (1 factor) you are looking at 3^3 possiblities. Do we REALLY want to write all those variables?

I am not sure what R has to offer to combat this... R? Anyone?

I admit that discovery of PROC MIXED has reduced homework time from several hours down to about 30 minutes. Ah.. sigh...

(By the way, every time I have to write "mu" <-- the Greek letter < "mu2" I can't stop laughing. "mu" is not less than "mu2," at least, according to a certain video game that shall not be *pokemon* mentioned.

In Honor of Deliciousness

I couldn't think of anywhere else to show this off; this particular place has, hands down, the best fish jerky I have ever tasted. And... now it can be ordered online. Very pricey, I will probably never order it, but it's cool to know that if, for some reason, one day, if I really, really, really wanted to have Lou's... I could.

http://www.lousfish.com/index.htm

On a side note, a distant relative called my folks today to tell them that he traced our heritage back behind the 1800's and found that our ancestors actually emigrated (I think that is the right word... you emigrate to a place? Uhm....) to Switzerland from Norway in the 1700's... which means... technically... I'm a VIKING.

Long Runs and a Review of "sugar-free Peeps"

For the past few days I have succeeded at a goal... to run 70+ minutes per day. This is how my running used to be, and I remembered that even at a low effort, this duration of run always "worked for me." Gosh, it feels so right to run long again. I think often that I should follow conventional wisdom-- short, fast runs. This, however, doesn't work for me. Maybe in the light of having extra training (martial arts for example) around it, this would work, since the MA would provide the long duration moderate intensity cardio, but without MA, long cardio (with some calisthenics/weights at the end) just feels... right. I am posting this here so that I will remember it... the satisfaction that comes from running long.

This morning I went upwards of 90 minutes. The reason being that I forgot my watch, so I had to rely on my CD player, and the mix list I had which lasts for about 94 minutes. Subtract a few potty breaks in the woods, and that puts me right around 90. Sweetness.

When I was done, of course, I was hungry, but I had no where to park at the school and all my stuff was in the car, so I decided to get a "snack" at Walmart (I needed a binder for something, and one of Clemson's many disadvantages is that there are no office supply stores or Target's here, so Anderson (around 15 miles away) is the closest place to get a binder)... it wasn't worth the drive. I will confess I have a love for marshmellows. They are my bad food weakness. Well, those and vanilla ice cream, although I have a bite of it and I remember that I hate ice cream. It's a cycle with that one. But not with marshmellows. So on sale at Walmart were... sugar-free peeps? I figured, well, they're on sale, and marshmellows aren't exactly healthy anyway, and I just did a run...

My review? They taste exactly like the sugared ones, except my teeth don't feel like they are going to rot out. They have about the same amount of carbs, but it is all from isomalt, which is not any healthier than regular sugar... i.e. they aren't made from Splenda or anything fake so I guess that's why they don't taste like butt... they just aren't technically made from "sugar." I also enjoyed a nice 6 pack of Fresca, since I was really thirsty, and it was near the front of the store, and it reminded me of my childhood.

Seriously, every time I drink Fresca I think of when I was little, and we had a season pass to the zoo. We went every weekend to see the lemurs, and there was a soda machine by the lemurs, so I always got two frescas. That was the same year that Christy's parents took us sailing a lot, and her mom had this big outdoor fridge filled with Fresca and Tab. We used to fill up a cooler with Fresca and sail until our skin cracked. So Fresca is a happy memory for me.

Back to SAS....

Delayed in DFW

I am currently in Dallas, amongst many hats. My flight has been delayed and I am enjoying the strangeness of blogging from a stainless steel keyboard in a very public setting. Unfortunately for anyone who is watching this, nothing I post is particularly exciting. I drank many coffees last night and today, watched a few episodes of NCIS, and tried to rectify the probability distribution thing using Fisher's ... my idea was maybe to split the probability of repeatedly selecting the same colored ball in one distribution (single sample with replacement) from the probability of choosing a red ball from the two red and blue balls (a constant probability of 1/2, but contingent on the selection in the first sample), therefore you have two distributions, but one is dependent on the other. I thought maybe I could use fishers to look at this like two parts of an experiment. The overall probability is different than the sum or the multiple of its parts. Unfortunately, fisher's assumes that the two tests are independent. I need to look further into what to do if they are dependent on one another.

That is all for now. Time to head to SF to see my favorite person.

Shameless OR promotion.

Shameless Promotion of the "Beaver State." In honor of the state that has been mentioned 2 x in the previous posts, I now present:

The amazing moss/crutose/foliose lichen on every tree.

Beautiful rugby fields behind the school, coastal mtns in background, fabulously overcast skies every day!!

Main building by the Beaver Stadium.

Just a little photo evidence.

Lemons -> lemonade?

(Trying to keep this as vague as possible, since we're not supposed to share details of this with anyone outside our lab yet -- so not mentioning the name of my advisor, the name of my current school, etc.)

This morning, my advisor met with our lab, and told us that he's thinking of taking a position at a school in New York. I can't blame him for considering it -- from the way he's described it, he'll have enormously increased freedom to pursue different kinds of research than he does in his current position, not to mention a lot more money to work with, period. He came in this morning, looking apologetic and somewhat defensive, and laid out what this could mean for his graduate students and postdocs, and emphasized that this was definitely not set in stone yet; he may very well end up turning the offer down and staying here.

I have mixed feelings about this. First, the bad part: my girlfriend currently lives in South Carolina, and is moving to Oregon in May -- which is still 9 hours away from the Bay Area, but it's much, much closer! For me to up and move to Long Island would be the ultimate fail, relationship-wise. Another, minor bad part is that I love the weather and the mountains in the Bay Area, and it would suck to move away. I should make the standard noises about how very much I'd miss all my dear friends and social contacts here, but being the terrible recluse that I am, those are pretty much nonexistent.

However, there are a number of positive aspects to this. The main one is that the school in New York actually has real physics and mathematics departments, unlike my current school! Since my research is really more like applied mathematics than biophysics, I think it would be invaluable to have access to a math department where I could discuss, for example, tensor decompositions with people who might actually know something about them, rather than spending months developing my own from scratch, because I work in an intellectual vacuum. Another plus is that because my advisor wouldn't be anchored strictly to NIH money, he'd be free to support research, like mine, that is more speculative, and not directly tied to biomedical applications.

After the rather awkward group meeting this morning, I stopped by my advisor's office, and told him all this, then asked him if it would be possible for me to do most of my work remotely. I pointed out that, although I live only 15 minutes from my current campus, I still do the majority of my work from my apartment. That's one advantage of theoretical research -- you really just need a pen, a pad of paper, and possibly a computer, and you're good to go! So I told him about the situation with my girlfriend, and asked him, "Would it be possible for me to live in Oregon with her, and fly to New York when needed?"

He looked at me oddly, and started to say, "Well, that's, um, that might be a problem..."

"I can fly for free," I added. "My brother works for an airline. So that wouldn't be an issue."

He stared at me for a minute, then laughed. "Oh! So...you're just asking whether it's ok with me if you're not physically at the campus? It doesn't matter to me at all. You're never here anyway. As long as you're making progress, you can live wherever you want."

So, this might not happen at all. But I am thinking that this could turn out to be a really good thing, if it does happen -- I could get a place with my girlfriend in Oregon, periodically fly to New York to a place that actually has physicists and mathematicians to interact with, and at the end of it all, still have a degree with my current school's name stamped on it!

Win?

Today it is 60 in Corvallis

Today it is 60 (and rainy) in Corvallis.

It (was) 16 and windy in Clemson.

I will be glad to move.

:)

Wow, a store that is actually cool

So yesterday I realized... dang, I do not own any pants. Now, this is not troubling for many females, who enjoy shopping, and also who can actually fit INTO pants. But for those of us who have the dimensions of a dude, buying pants is ridiclous and terrible, and elastic waistbands as in track pants are heavenly. Feminine pants look dumb on Germans. Okay, we just don't do "girly."

But... oh, thank you NCIS, I came up with a brilliant idea... what pants are practical, made for people who are muscular, and, best of all... waterproof/resistant and windproof/resistant? Yes, my friends, canvas pants. And where can canvas pants be found but... a store that is actually really cool, the military supply store in Greenville!

I trekked to Greenville to check this place out, half on a mission to find pants and half because I wanted to see all the cool weaponry, artifacts, and gear. It was really neat. I also found pants. They sit up higher than most pants I am used to, but they are really warm and comfortable; I could probably even run in them, if I wanted to. I can deal with it. Best of all, they come in the size I actually wear: unisex small. I have worn this size for roughly the past 15 years, so I figure it's not going to change any time soon.

But what was super cool, and I will have to go back and see, is that they have replicates (and official) gear from all kinds of real battles. You know, real knives, hiking stuff, boots, etc. It was very cool. Flags, you name it.

I hate shopping, but I'll admit, seeing all the hardcore outdoor gear that is actually used in practical situations: that was pretty neat. Maybe I've found a store I actually don't mind going into!

... on a side note: it was 20 degrees and 20 mph winds here today. I forced myself to run 8 miles and then did an intense workout in el gimasio FIKE to prepare for defeating San Bruno. My creepy German genetics did their best to embarass all males at the gym by making me ridiculously strong. It's kind of cool to be strangely strong... but I feel strange because people look at me like "are you really going to lift that?" Yes.

This sucks

My lower back's been bothering me a bit the past few days. Last night it hurt more. This morning I woke up and could barely walk. I tried to go for a run and made it, oh, about twenty steps.

Chiropractor's appointment on Wednesday. Painkillers to last me until then...

Intense pain for the LOSE.

The downside of almonds... and trying to capture a run on camera fail.

So, I was just about to plug in my camera... when I realized that my USB cable appeared to be problematic. Turns out, one of my favorite snacks-- dates and almonds-- had managed to find its way into my USB port... and so I spent the past few minutes picking almonds out of the USB with a random pair of nail clippers that for one reason or another have ended up on my desk (well, with the "file" extension.. I don't think I have ever "filed" anything that wasn't made of wood before in my life, so at least I got to put that thing to good use.)

So why, you ask, was I connecting to my computer? Because this morning I attempted <-- key word -- to simulate San Bruno on the Clemson dikes, with photos to prove it. I have learned a few valuable lessons:

1. I require a crap ton of protein per day to function well in running, and when this amount is off for even a day or so, it makes my running go to poo

2. Lifting weights is apparently a very good workout, as I was ridiculously sore this morning and

3. When there has been an ice storm for 3 days, the ground is very... very... mushy.

Nonetheless. I made it through 6 repeats of the dike. On the seventh I ended up collapsing, which made me think the workout was sufficient. I am attempting to extract the photos from the almond master camera right now... I guess USB cables do not like healthy fats as much as I do!

This is a giant snowball looking up at the side of the dike, which looks completely not intimidating... BUT IT IS!!! It is very intimidating!

This is why I am happy that soon I will be in Oregon. Although admittedly it is kind of pleasant looking.

Just a little 50 minute warm up to get me going!... I love my distance runs.... even in the light of a good workout, it saddens me not to do a distance run, so... heck... might as well do it.

And, if this works, here is the precursor video to the running of the dike. When I succeed at getting 10 repeats of dike (again, only 6 today) I will also make a success film. And then I will work my way up to 20.

Ok. Wow. Back to figuring out some weird definition stuff for stats. I prefer that the math be hard and the text be easy, but in this case, the math is easy and the text is hard. I really shouldn't have been an English major!!

10,000 hours of physics

I recently finished reading Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers, in which he advances the idea that, regardless of your innate talents, in order to achieve true expertise at any complex task, 10,000 hours of practice are required. It's an interesting argument, and the various studies he discusses seem to support this idea forcefully. I got to thinking -- how many hours have I spent purposefully doing at least college-level physics, with the intent to improve my skill at it?

I remember the first time I really put in a lot of time learning physics was for the second semester of the introductory physics courses at UGA, the one that covered basic electricity and magnetism, and optics. That stuff was hard when I first learned it; it's not like the first semester, which covers mechanics, which could be tackled in a pretty common-sense way without spending a lot of time on it. I probably spent about 15 hours a week just on that one class -- so over a semester, something like 240 hours. Then there was linear algebra, which probably was about the same -- 240 hours total for a semester. When I actually started my physics degree, I switched over to taking a full load of physics courses every semester. A full load of physics courses, not surprisingly, is pretty time-intensive. I'd say I averaged at least 40 or 50 hours per week. Including the one semester I spent taking a bunch of random engineering classes at Georgia Tech (which was essentially the same skill-set), that's 5 semesters total -- three at UGA, and two at Tech -- so, assuming 45 hours per week, roughly 3600 hours.

My first year at UCSF was a nightmarish amount of work, but a significant chunk of that time was spent learning random biological material (in particular, structural biology), and learning practical lab skills, neither of which is really the same skill-set as physics, in my mind. So although I was easily spending 80 hours a week studying and/or doing research, I'd say 20 of those, maximum, count in the tally. Probably more in the spring, less in the winter. If it's 20 average, then about 960 for my first year. Second year I TA'd, and had to spend an abnormal amount of time studying statistical physics, then I switched labs to my current lab, where I spend essentially all my time doing physics. So, probably 40 hours per week during the academic year, so about 1440 total. That summer, I spent almost literally every waking hour obsessing over a new tensor method I was trying to develop to analyze a model for interacting magnetic particles (the Ising model) -- I easily totaled 80 hours per week, if not more, over about 3 months, so 960 hours total. Since then, I've settled into a more normal routine; probably around 40 hours per week -- around another 960 hours.

So, tallying it all up: 240 + 240 + 3600 + 960 + 1440 + 960 + 960 = 8400 hours total.

Getting close to the magic number! At this rate, I should hit the 10,000 hour mark exactly 10 months from now -- so, mid-December of this year. Sweet!

Should Foresters Believe in Logs?

The logarithmic transformation is used frequently in forestry calculations. The reason for this is obvious, and true: we deal with LOGS.

Specifically, we deal with the volume of logs, and therefore, the value of logs.

Many foresters assume that a log is cylindrical. Well... logs are somewhat cylindrical, but ask anyone who has been to a pole mill: a good pole tree is hard to find. In other words, it is rare that a perfectly cylindrical tree is found, or even a perfectly cylindrical log cut from a tree. Trees taper off at their upper ends. In fact, we measure tree height in what is called merchantable height, which means "a certain minimum width at the top"-- usually 4-6 in. The bole of the tree could be 22 inches... somewhere up high, it will be 4-6 inches.

Let's say we're walking through the woods and we want to know "how much is this tree worth for timber?" You can look at a 70 foot pine with a 15 inch DBH, but that means that 16 feet up that tree you aren't looking at a 15 inch DBH-- you may only have a 12 inch DBH. So how do we measure the tree? Let's simply consider the case of a perfectly straight, but tapered tree. First of all, we've got to make an estimate of the tree's diameter at some height above DBH in all of these methods-- and let me tell you right now: no economical forester is going to go climb every tree to get this measurement. When you've got to survey 200 acres in a day, you learn to eyeball it, or, if you're lucky, maybe get a good laser gator. Next, you've got to figure out what cuts you are going to make-- you can get 8, 10, 12 and 16 foot logs at most places, plus crappy wood like rail tie and pulpwood. These cuts represent the "height" of your cylinder. Usually at this point you will cut the tree. Then you choose a log rule: Doyle's, Scribner's, or International-- you can make an arguement for any of the three rules (each has advantages and disadvantages) to determine the merchantable volume from the log, and hope you get a good estimate....

It seems like, in theory, foresters should believe in "logs." That is, if the volume of a tree is ROUGHLY cylindrical, we can use the cylinder volume equation: (pi/4)*(d^2)*h in a logarithimic form: log(volume) = log (pi/4) + 2 log (d) + log(height) which could convert to log(volume) = b0 + b1D + b2H where D = log(d) and H = log(h) to estimate the proper equation given lots of data about diameter and height... but we forget something magical and terrible about logs: where there is a logarithmic transformation, there is also the ability for the data variance to be increased and the distribution to be non-normal. And over here, we do not do non-normal distributions. Well... we try not to!

Increase variance: decrease ability of the equation to work for large values of d and h... and who wants an equation that only works accurately on small, crappy trees...

So I wonder... what's a forester to do? The answer many mills use is actually.. well, calculus. New laser scanners can actually integrate the shape of a log and provide an accurate measurement of a cut logs volume-- they can even suggest optimal cuts to get the best grain and least knots. Got to love technology, but I admit: it seems awfully ironic that foresters really can't believe in LOGS.

The Cloak

So what did I do that was useful today... not much.

For starters, I got blizzarded into the MSP airport this morning, where I worked with tree math for a while and then I watched an episode of NCIS that I downloaded yesterday called "The Cloak." No, I am not going to give a synopsis here, but I think this episode had a pretty cool point. So I do have to give a synopsis.

The idea of the episode was that the main characters were engaged in a war game with another group; they were looking for a security breech. And their superiors were engaged in another war game above them looking for the security breech. And there were several levels of this game going on, and the whole show ended up with the eventual way of dealing with the breech simply being to follow the "mole" until it went back to its bosses. This, I think, mimics how I SHOULD deal with data. I like to invent "games" for data on many levels. Maybe I should just try to trace it some time, instead of wondering how it plays...

By the way: the "cloak" as mentioned above is cool, but snuggies are not.

Gregor Mendel LP

Okay, so this is really dumb, and the video is worthless, but the song is HILARIOUS

Want to make fun of the fundamentals of genetics?

Hi, Meiosis

Yes, how exciting. I work hard over here.

Couldn't sleep, but wow, heard a cool song!

I get major test anxiety and man, I could not sleep last night at all. However, I think it must be my new regime of protein and banana consumption that is giving me a butt load of energy, because at 4:15 this morning, for the first time in a WHILE (since summer camp, really) I woke up just wanting to run-- it was 31 out and kind of damp-- excellent!

While I was awake last night, I searched for this cool song that I had only heard a few words of. I have no idea why I like it so much, but it really is catchy-- and it's a great running tune. I had it in my head the whole run; it's got a slow start, but really, it's pretty great. Never heard of this group before, "Blue October," but I've not heard of many groups!

http://popup.lala.com/popup/432627069328786377

Stuff that can't be both

I have always been really interested in endocrinology.

I was talking about o. chem. yesterday in the office (because when graduate students get off topic, it's just switching to another area of academia, I think), but I really amazed by how many hormones have this "either one or the other, but not both" thing going on... ex. seretonin and norepineprhine; insulin and cortisol; adrenaline; insulin and glucagon; leptin and glucagon, etc. And then there's the whole limitation on hormonal creation because of the fundamental molecule-- ex. DHEA in relation to adrenaline and cortisol-- too much adrenaline is actually treated by increasing DHEA... even though adrenaline is synthesized from DHEA. Type 2 diabetes: too much insulin is treated with insulin injections-- under utilization treated effectively by supplementation. It defies "common logic" but it's in the fundamental nature of things.

What really makes me curious about this is that we look at many biological things as if they are going to have this asymptotic, "normal" function; I guess I'm thinking about marginal cost (thanks, Pericles! :) )or something here, but we might logically surmise, that the creation, for example, of too much insulin, will mean that each additional insulin will have a decreasing effectiveness... I guess the logic is that they would have an equal effect and just be bonding to a decreasing amount of available insulin receptors. The fact is, it's more discrete that that-- too much insulin, and you inhibit the functions of cortisol and glucagon making the effect of insulin-- more effective...

I learned that there are receptors in chloroplasts sensitive to wavelengths of red light-- if you have too many trees growing near one another, one of the reasons for distressed growth isn't a lack of light, but the fact that light reflected off of other trees is actually green and not red. So that the red light receptors are turned off, and the tree is not only harmed by the lack of direct red light from the sides, but from the additional effect of having its red light receptors turned off...

As a martial artist, I remember the best fighting tactic I learned was: whatever seems natural, do the opposite-- if you are being choked, move into the choke. If someone is punching you, step in past the punch and take a forearm to his throat, if someone tries to pull you down, fall. The oddest thing about this to me was that although typical fighting techniques seemed logical, the "atypical" fighting techniques actually agreed with the qigong/meridian theory-- it was as if we naturally have an atypical nature, but logically have a typical one---

I wonder if this is sort of a governing principle of all things: endocrinology, fighting, math, whatever: we are naturally inclined to be "one" or "the other" but not both-- trying to be marginally in "two worlds" results in failure to be in either one. Evolution is crazy like that, I guess. Maybe that's something philosophical there, too. I don't know. I guess I'll read this later and think either, "wow, that's dumb," or "wow, that's brilliant." And there's another duality for you: I don't think I'll read it and say, "well, that was about 40% okay."

I guess the long and short of it is that some stuff just can't be both.

Other people's poop on my bathroom floor = bad day

The bad news: yesterday, my toilet overflowed. It was disgusting. I mucked out the bathroom and plunged the toilet for about a half hour, but it didn't seem to unclog. I had a big meeting the next morning, so I went to bed and figured I'd deal with it the next day. This morning, the toilet had overflowed AGAIN, and this time, a bunch of rancid water had come up my shower drain. Absolutely disgusting. Then I got back from work, and I noticed that the main drain outside my apartment was overflowing with what looked like raw sewage. About an hour later, the public works emergency crew was there, and told me that yes, this actually was a sewage overflow, and yes, this was raw sewage strewn across my building's parking area...and my apartment's bathroom. That's nice to know that the rancid liquid I was mucking out was, in fact, raw, untreated sewage.

The good news: they fixed it, and the landlord (an unpleasant character who I've previously locked horns with...a little over a year ago, we had a screaming match over the phone, where he threatened to take me to court because I had the temerity to replace my apartment's heater which was sparking all over my carpet and an obvious fire hazard, after he ignored two written notices from me over the course of two and a half months...we hadn't been on speaking terms since then) came by, actually apologetic for once. He had the maintenance guy come into my apartment and clean out my bathroom, which was nice, so I don't have to be exposed again to a bunch of raw sewage. He also gave me $200 off next month's rent, so it's not a total loss!

Matrix Algebra: 1, Calculus: 0

I am reviewing my least squares in preparation for this exam on Thursday and I saw this on Wikipedia. For the first time, I thought to myself, wow... I understand the matrices more than the calculus!

Moss...

Today I spend the day being a Bryologist.

This morning I decided to run up in the CEF. It was 26 and very icey out, which made for a precarious run, but it was really fun. I was a muddy mess by the time I was done; the thawing ice was making rivers and a lot of trails were closed. As I ran out on the trails (I did some single track) I noticed a lot of moss-- as I ran back, none. Why? Moss grows on certain (I believe north-facing) aspects.... interesting.

This afternoon we took the ecology class to a big granite rock to teach them about succession. I got to pull up a bunch of Spagnum spp. (Reindeer moss) which is one of my favorites. We also saw a ton of Vaccineum arboreum (Tree Sparkleberry) just growing its way to happiness. I've always liked Tree Sparkleberry... it looks a lot like Ligustrum sinense (Privet), which I don't like at all, but Tree Sparkleberry is the "native" version.

It was good to see some Tree Sparkleberry. I looked for running shoes today, as well, but no DS Trainers in site. Guess I'll be wearing my flats until I can find some!

Going to CA in 4 days!!! Yes!!

The sacrificial lamb has been delivered

Whew...finally got the second draft of my manuscript in! I guess this is why it's usually considered a bad idea to completely scrap your existing introduction and theory sections and start over: it's a ridiculous amount of work. Now it's time to wait and see how long it takes the other folks on the project (including, of course, our in-house economist, statistician, and lumberjack-of-all-trades Master_of_Forests...hmm, should that be 'lumberjill' or something, or is lumberjack gender-neutral?) to tear it to pieces.

Who is Mr. Pareto?

Everywhere I look, I run into this guy, "Pareto." Pareto's this and Pareto's that. Pareto's Optimality. Pareto's Multipliers. Pareto Analysis. Pareto's Efficiency. Pareto's Flying Car and Elephant with Giant Zerg Eating Its Ears while Painting Its Hooves. Well, maybe I exaggerate a little bit.

I don't think I've actually heard of Pareto's Multipliers... I think that's just a term I've been using when I see Pareto mention in the context of LaGrange multipliers.

Which begs me to wonder, just who is this Mr. Pareto... and how did he discover everything?

As it turns out, WIKIPEDIA, thank you, Vilfredo was an industrialist and economist enjoying the reign of "our good friend" Mussolini. Vilfredo was the paean of fascist economists and the father of power laws in relation to income distribution. And... I would explain more, but my view of the wiki link to Pareto Distribution exposed me to my favorite Greek symbol that I do not understand, also known as the "squiggle." So I will leave the explaining of Pareto's math to those who are not currently explaining a simple exponential function for 200 thesis pages and get back to my work. Meanwhile... I am sure you are glad to know about Vilfredo and the original context of his existence.

On a side note, Pareto Optimality is considered a main goal of natural resource economists today. Ah, it seems like all my favorite economic theorists have been associated with a rather unfortunate period and culture of history-- Ezra Pound's La Economiste, anyone? Brilliant work... bad timing.